A late week surprise from USDA helped give the soybean market a 23-cent advance on the week while corn was fractionally lower and wheat was off 10.
Early in the week the FBN℠ member corn harvest poll showed corn harvest had gained little ground.
At the end of the week, USDA’s monthly Supply and Demand Report brought some buying enthusiasm for beans. The USDA lowered soybean yields from 49.9 last month to 49.5 while the trade was expecting a slight uptick to 50.0. However, harvested acreage was increased by 800K acres to keep production unchanged at 4.431 but slightly below trade expectations of 4.447. Carryout was reduced by 41 MB thanks to lower quarterly stocks reported in Sept.
For corn, it was mostly a negative to neutral report with US yield coming in high at 171.8 and well above expectations at 170.1. However, a slight drop in harvested acres helped mute the overall impact as production was at 14.28 billion vs 14.18 last month. Ending stocks were mostly unchanged month-to-month at 2.34 billion bushels. The one shining nugget was a slight dip in world carryout forecasts to 201 MMT from 202.5 MMT in Sept. This was mostly due to a 1.2 MMT cut in Black Sea corn production.
On the export front, there were some decent flash sales this week which helped limit downside moves in the market. The daily sales had 597 TMT corn reported. China and Mexico were also in the US market for beans, with China expected to be a bigger buyer in the coming days after being off a week.
National Cash Market:
In the cash market this week there was a bit of buoyancy as river barge markets reverted to more normal pricing and corn harvest ground to a near halt. On the week, soybean basis was up 2 cents while corn basis posted a modest 1-cent advance.
With the slow progress for corn harvest, basis levels held mostly stable on the week with
some modest gains in the Upper Plains and Western Cornbelt were wet weather has hampered cutting progress. Along the river system, a drop in barge rates helped fuel a big 10-cent advance on the week. But for ethanol plants as a group they were off 1-cent on the week.
For soybeans, the river markets also catapulted higher by 16 cents a bushel from last week’s disastrous readings. Soy crush plants added 2 cents a bushel as a group but plants located closer to river markets followed higher with double digit gains.
Harvest delays are still expected as this weekend should bring rain into the NW part of the grain belt. Some localized flooding is possible, especially in central and southern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Missouri, and northwestern Illinois. This could continue to provide support to corn basis.
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